Forecasting Models

The course “Forecasting Models” occupies an important place in the training of postgraduate students in the field of climate services, as it allows you to move from the description of climate processes to their quantitative analysis and prediction. In the context of global climate change, the intensification of extreme weather events and the need to make scientifically sound decisions on adaptation and mitigation of climate change, the role of forecasting models is significantly increasing. Such models are the main tool for assessing future changes in the climate system, the risks associated with these changes, and the development of effective management strategies. The aim of the course is to develop students’ knowledge and skills in the construction, evaluation, verification and practical application of predictive models in the field of climate and the environment. The course covers both the basic concepts of mathematical modeling and modern approaches to creating models of varying complexity – from simple empirical to complex numerical models of the general circulation of the atmosphere. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of input data, methods of model calibration, uncertainty assessment and interpretation of forecast results for decision-making. The course is focused on training specialists who are able to apply the theoretical foundations of climatology to analyze climate change, assess its consequences and support the development of climate services, taking into account modern challenges, in particular the restoration of Ukraine.